Election Day Predictions
A few predictions as we approach 12 hours until one of the most exciting days of the year for a political science major like me...
Electoral College: Bush 286, Kerry 252
Popular Vote: Bush 50.1%, Kerry 48.3%
Swing States:
Bush wins Florida (27), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), and Ohio (20)
Kerry wins Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10)
I honestly believe Hawaii (4) may flip Bush too, but not enough to stake my reputation on it. Michigan should be firmly Kerry at this point. Once again, the key state is almost certainly Florida. The difference is, I don't believe Kerry can win without it, but Bush can lose FLA and still cobble together enough Electoral Votes to win the election.
Republicans pick up 3 seats in the House.
Republicans pick up 3 seats in Senate -- now 54-46.
Obama defeats Keyes by a margin of 63-34.
Just remember, I did predict both the Boston Red Sox to win the World Series and the UConn Huskies to win the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
I invite Mike to add his 2 cents, and readers to reply with their predictions. Winner gets the most valuable possession of all, pride.
6 Comments:
At the moment, Slate is saying that the balance resides in Ohio and Florida; Bush needing both, but Kerry needing only one.
Although, Slate is putting Pennsylvania definitively in the Kerry column and based on things I've been reading, that's a state that is still up for grabs. Could it be that PA's importance is being downplayed?
No, I think Ohio is going to be a 4-point Bush and Pennsylvania a 4-point Kerry. Florida was so important last time, it's almost as if media-types are afraid to explain just how important it is again. Florida is THE swing state, no doubt. Michigan should be Kerry's now. Wisconsin is leaning Kerry. Bush has New Mexico.
It will be interesting. That's an understatement, of course.
I also remember a certain someone having a history of bad picks for championships. Does "Mariano Rivera is in, game over Arizona" sound familiar? You've also made quite a name of not remembering what you have said, so i am glad this one is in writing.
I am not saying that you don't have a pretty good guess going. However, it seems to me that Florida is going Kerry (pre-elction votes have been 53% kerry to 40%). I am not so sure about Zogby, but they have kerry up in florida. After that, it will be quite interesting to see what happens. I am not convinced that New Mexico is going bush from what i have seen. Trends have been in the upward direction for kerry at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html. The undecided will probably break for Kerry.
I will go out on a limb and say that Kerry will win the popular vote.
Oh, and Obama is going to smash Keyes much worse than that.
I know you listen to over and beyond a normal persons' quota of propaganda a day. So, we will see if it has tainted your guess or not.
Dave's got the right idea -- www.realclearpolitics.com is the site I trust the most on these predictions. They've nailed the 2002 mid-term elections and the 2003s as well. A huge indicator on how these states will go is how the polls break late.
Florida is big, but if Ohio breaks to Kerry Bush is in big trouble. I don't think that will happen.
You win, i am stupid. Although i am certain that the American poeple are stupider.
at least i was right about obama.
A
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