Spanish Bombs

It's impossible to tell just what the swing in the Spanish vote was caused by. Any of the reasons I've heard (from the polls being wrong, to the Iraq war, to the heavy-handed accusations at ETA) have validity on a micro level with individual voters. It's silly to think that the entire swing was motivated by one particular response. Democracy is wild and diverse...

The issue here, in my mind, is that what happened went exactly as predicted.

From a piece on Iraqi jihad that the Guardian cites being published in December:

"If [Spain's] troops remain in Iraq after the attacks, a Socialist victory is practically guaranteed and withdrawal of the troops will feature in its election manifesto."

This is what makes the election results frightening however fair and justified they may be. There is a plan in action that we (again) did not foresee.